SINGAPORE (Yosefardi) – East Asia remains one of the main growth drivers of the world economy, accounting for nearly two-fifths of global economic growth, according to a new World Bank report. Overall, the region is expected to grow 6.5% in 2015, moderating slightly from 6.8% last year.
The recovery in high-income economies remains gradual, global trade is growing at its slowest pace since 2009, and the widespread slowdown in developing countries has intensified, particularly in commodity producers affected by lower commodity prices.
The performance trends across East Asia are diverse. China’s economy is expected to grow at about 7% this year and gradually moderate thereafter, as its economy continues to shift toward a model more dominated by domestic consumption and services, which implies a gradual reduction of growth.
The rest of developing East Asia is expected to grow 4.6% in 2015, similar to the rate last year.
Commodity exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Mongolia will see slower growth and lower public revenues this year, reflecting weaker global commodity prices.
Commodity importers will maintain a stable — even robust — pace of growth. Vietnam, for example, is expected to grow 6.2% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016.
Growth will ease, however, in many of the smaller economies. In Cambodia, lower agricultural output is hurting the economy, although growth will still be 6.9% this year. In Myanmar, severe flooding in July will likely drive down the pace of growth to 6.5%, from 8.5% in 2014. Pacific Island countries, meanwhile, will see moderate growth.